Research proves iPredict's accuracy in election forecasting

New research by the University of Michigan shows iPredict was more accurate than nine of the 10 major polls leading up to last year's general election.

"It’s a great result which confirms overseas research that prediction markets are one of the best forecasters of election outcomes," says iPredict Chief Executive Matt Burgess.

Research shows iPredict and TV3 were the most accurate forecasts of party vote share during the election campaign

"TV3's poll published on November 6 was extraordinarily accurate, and just pushed us into second place in overall accuracy," says Mr Burgess.

"We were pleased with the result, but we weren't surprised. Prediction markets have been outperforming political polls overseas for twenty years."

He sees prediction markets as a strong complement to traditional polls in future elections and topical events.

"Accuracy is only one advantage of prediction markets. While each poll may come out once a week near an election, iPredict runs 24/7 and responds to news in real time," Mr Burgess says.

"That means we can accurately measure the political value of news events as they happen."

iPredict is authorised by the Securities Commission as a futures dealer and is owned by Victoria University and the Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation. The primary purpose of iPredict is research and education. Anybody can browse iPredict and see the predictions for free by going to www.iPredict.co.nz. Traders must be 18 years and older to set up an account. Accounts are free to set up and people can start trading with as little as $5.