New Zealand defend top spot in rankings

New Zealand have sat atop the IRB World Rankings for more weeks than any other country since their introduction in October 2003, but defeat by France in their much anticipated Rugby World Cup 2011 encounter on Saturday will see them relinquish that position to Les Bleus.

The All Blacks have occupied top spot since 16 November 2009 and currently have a 6.77 rating point advantage over fifth ranked France. However, as the home side the consequences of a loss during RWC 2011 are more significant for New Zealand.

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France will replace New Zealand as the number one side in the world with any margin of victory at Eden Park, becoming the first northern hemisphere nation to head the rankings since then world champions England relinquished that position in June 2004.

The two sides have never met in the pool stages of a Rugby World Cup, but while New Zealand overran France to win the inaugural final 29-9 at the same venue in 1987, France ended the All Blacks’ title dreams in both 1999 and 2007, at the semi-final and quarter-final stage respectively.

New Zealand, who top Pool A on point difference from France, will at best slip to third – a position they have not occupied since losing the RWC 2003 semi-final to Australia. A loss by more than 15 points would also drop them below the Wallabies to a new low of fourth.

If New Zealand avenge their quarter-final exit four years ago in Cardiff and beat France then the impact on their rating points will be minimal with a victory by more than 15 points only equating to a seven hundredth gain for the tournament hosts.

Key battle in Pool B

The three nations currently separating New Zealand and France in the rankings are unable to improve their rating as they face opponents ranked considerably lower than them, as many as 17 places and 25.47 points in South Africa’s case.

South Africa ran out convincing 87-0 winners over neighbours Namibia on Thursday at North Harbour Stadium in the first all-African encounter in RWC history, while an Australian victory over 17th ranked USA in Wellington on Friday will also have no impact.

If two all-European affairs go the way of the higher ranked opponents with England beating 18th ranked Romania in Pool B and Ireland defeating Russia, ranked 21st after losing to USA last week, in Pool C then they will been unaffected.

Scotland, though, are one European nation who can improve their ranking with victory over Argentina in a key fixture in Pool B, regardless of the margin, enough to lift them above their Celtic rivals Wales into seventh.

Argentina will remain ninth, unless they lose by more than 15 points or Samoa beat Fiji by the same margin to climb above them. A must-win match for the Pumas if they are to keep alive their quarter-final aspirations, they will climb above Scotland into eighth with victory.

Pacific island pride

Tonga have provisionally climbed two places on the back of beating Japan 31-18 on Wednesday, the third match in which the lower ranked opponent has emerged victorious, Canada’s win over Tonga and Ireland’s upset of Australia the others.

The Ikale Tahi should remain in 13th despite the outcome of the Pacific Islands derby at Eden Park on Sunday when Samoa and Fiji lock horns in Pool D, both desperate for victory in order to keep alive hopes of reaching the knockout stages of RWC 2011.

Samoa are currently the higher ranked of the two rivals in 12th, despite falling two after last weekend’s loss to Wales, but Fiji ran out 36-18 winners when the sides last met at the IRB Pacific Nations Cup in July.

If Samoa avenge that loss then they can climb two or three places, depending on the margin of victory and the outcome of Scotland v Argentina in Wellington later on Sunday. Defeat for Fiji would condemn to a two-place fall to their lowest ever ranking of 16th.

By contrast, a Fijian victory could see them surge up to 10th, a position they occupied before losing two of three Pacific Nations Cup matches on home soil, and condemn Samoa to a new low ranking of 14th or 15th depending on the winning margin.

The IRB World Rankings update every Monday at 12:00 UK time.