Project explores Taranaki's future energy scenarios

Taranaki could become an energy powerhouse or lose its national prominence in the sector in scenarios developed by a Taranaki Regional Council-led project looking at what the region could look like in 30 years.

The Taranaki Energy Scenarios initiative brought together the region's four councils, iwi, Te Puna Umanga Venture Taranaki, government agencies, industry and other stakeholders to identify four possible futures for the region's energy sector.

On the positive side, Taranaki could become a National Energy Hub or Regional Energy Innovator, but the downside scenarios would see the region turn into an 'Energy Island' or lose relevance in the Constrained Transition scenario.

Taranaki Regional Council Strategy Lead Finbar Kiddle says the project will help inform the development of a regional spatial plan and the four councils' policy settings.

'While we don't have a crystal ball when looking to 2055, the project has been invaluable in developing some best and worst case scenarios for Taranaki's energy sector,' says Mr Kiddle.

'We felt this was a timely initiative given there is a huge amount of uncertainty around energy and changes to the importance of oil and gas to the local economy.

'This will help decision‑makers understand how different energy futures might unfold over the next three decades and what these could mean for land use, infrastructure and regional development.'

The four scenarios were developed through research, interviews and a workshop involving all the stakeholders and are featured in a report by consultancy firm Beca. The work was also informed by the regional economic development strategy and action plan, Tapuae Roa and the Taranaki 2050 Roadmap.

The four scenarios are:

• The National Energy Hub sees Taranaki becoming a centralised energy powerhouse, hosting large‑scale renewable infrastructure such as offshore wind farms, tidal energy, solar arrays, bioenergy and green hydrogen production.
• Regional Energy Innovator sees the region embracing a decentralised model, with distributed energy hubs powered by solar, wind and biogas across towns and rural areas.
• Energy Island sees Taranaki losing its prominence as a national energy hub. Centralised infrastructure loses its prominence, while the more community‑scale opportunities around decentralised generation struggle to get off the ground.
• In the Constrained Transition scenario, the region continues to contribute to national energy generation but in a constrained environment. As the region diversifies, the energy sector gradually loses regional relevance.

Recommendations from the work include developing a flexible spatial plan for Taranaki involving all four councils, integrating economic and spatial planning and embedding iwi and community leadership.

'The project underscores that the future of the sector depends on attracting energy‑intensive industry, maintaining a high‑quality regulatory environment and wider economic diversification to guard against the negative scenarios,' added Mr Kiddle.

'It was pleasing to see a high level of engagement with this exercise that shows how committed councils, central government, iwi, industry and stakeholders are to finding a way forward for the region.'

Anne Probert, Director of Strategic and Sector Partnerships at Te Puna Umanga Venture Taranaki, the regional development agency, said the report is an extremely valuable piece of work, and one that shines a light on the possibilities ahead for the region.

'These scenarios give the region a clearer view of what different futures could mean for our communities, our industries, and our workforce,' says Dr Probert. 'They reinforce why our region must continue to be bold, proactive, and focused on shaping our own energy future.'

The final report and summary report can be found here.