Another FTA, another meaningless political trophy?

When the Prime Minister announced he would secure a free trade agreement (FTA) with India during the term of this government he scored another own goal. India, with whom New Zealand had spent many previous years in futile negotiations for a FTA, knew it could simply dictate the terms to a government desperate for a political trophy, according to Auckland University Professor Emeritus of law Jane Kelsey, who closely follows India's trade negotiations.

Today's announcement that a worthwhile deal has been sealed in just eight months and a handful of negotiating rounds, needs to be taken with a sack of salt,

Kelsey notes that the government's announcement comes with no means of verification.

There is no public text and very little information has been released throughout the short negotiation. So, there is no way to independently assess the government's claims. Nor do we know that India will actually see agreement this through to ratification and implementation.

Given New Zealand's relative insignificance, India's Ministers and negotiators will have sought precedents they can press on countries of far greater significance, such as securing guaranteed access for its migrant workforce, while avoiding concessions that would set a bad precedent and create political problems, such as granting market access concessions for New Zealand's dairy products that would antagonise its tens of millions of politically‑active dairy farmers.

In parallel, India has been more focused on other international priorities, including FTAs with the European Union, United Kingdom (UK) and Canada, and its pivotal role in the deeply troubled World Trade Organization.

The minimal outcomes of those negotiations put promises of tangible gains for New Zealand into perspective.

The UK and India, the world's fifth and sixth largest economies, concluded a FTA in July 2025 after three and a half years and 15 rounds of negotiations. The UK's own impact assessment predicts a derisory increase to its gross GDP of 0.13%, or "4.8 billion" in the long run, with 0.06% or "45.1 billion" for India. [1]

Professor Kelsey called for evidence‑based public debate and engagement before any further negotiations are launched that sink scarce public resources into what have become little more than political notches on the government's belt.