Agsafe Weekly Rural Report

Finance: The NZ dollar firmed over the week.  The Aussie differential has widened again making it tough for those holidaying in Aussie.  Brent Crude moved up a little and is currently at $US64.13/barrel.

Wool:  The wool prices are firming with strong demand from China.  There is growing optimism in the sector

Beef, Sheep & Venison schedules: The meat schedules are steady to firmer with some upward movement in most classes of stock.  The expected grass growth following the recent rain will allow farmers to keep stock on the farm a little longer if necessary.  

Dairy Prices.  The g/DT lifted 1.5% which was good news for the dairy industry.  Butter was up 2.1%, SMP up 2.2% and WMP lifted 1% to $US3449/tonne.  A reasonable volume of +27,000 tonnes was sold.

The maize crops have enjoyed the summer rain and are looking very good as I move around the central North Island.  Many of the crops are starting to tassel.  It is time to check with the contractors regarding the likely harvest dates and their availability.  Ensure the bunkers/stack areas are ready for the new season harvest.

Jim’s Weekly Rant:

The weather events of the last week have been extreme creating damage and mayhem across much of the North Island.  Our thoughts and prayers to those who lost family and loved ones in the tragic landslides at Mount Maunganui and Welcome Bay and in the flooded river at Warkworth.  The Waikato Regional Council recorded near record water flows in the Ohinemuri river at Paeroa peaking at 862.7 cubic metres per second with a normal flow rate of 10.3 m3/sec.  The heaviest rainfall was recorded in Golden Valey between Waihi and the coast at over 350mm in the 24-hour period.  Tauranga recorded it’s heaviest ever 24-hr rainfall being 274mm.  It was an extreme event and like other extreme weather events they are difficult to predict how and where they have the most impact.  While Tauranga had its highest ever rainfall on the same day at Te Kaha around the coast from Opotiki had less than 100mm.  Matamata and the Te Poi district had some extreme easterly winds while areas further inland were spared; there were trees down and buildings damaged.  I would also encourage you all to call in at the Karangahake Pub in the Karangahake gorge next time you are passing through and check the flood lines and the dates and I think you will be surprised with some of the past Ohinemuri river levels.  If we look at the world data we find that the hurricanes have not increased since the 1980, the number of tornadoes worldwide have reduced since the 1950’s and the wildfires burnt around 5 million acres in 1900 and is now down to 3.5 million acres in 2024, but with instant media access around the world there appears to be more disaster events, and few can remember back 100-years.  I think every farmer in NZ with sloping land is aware that slipping and slumping are always possible with the variable depth of the underlying soil structure and saturation points above are difficult, if not, impossible to calculate the likelihood of a slip or a serious slump.  Those with sloping or even hilly farm areas are always surprised when a new slip lets-go on the land that may have appeared stable for the previous 100 years or more – they are unpredictable.  Again, we have seen the forestry slash on the beaches north of Gisborne and the damage it creates (the result of a Green Pary policy).  New Zealand is unique being an island nation being on the volcanic ring-of-fire and located within weather systems that drag cyclones down from the tropics and blasts up from the Antarctic.  We have young soils that will move as slips and slumps as saturation levels change.  The government cannot legislate against nature and no health and safety policy will ever be able to predict an Act-of-God and have policies to cover these periodic events.  Are we going to require the geo-technical engineers to tag properties on slopes to advise of a risk of slipping if the rainfall exceeds a certain level that it has never reached before on a particular degree of slope?  The slips at the Mount and Welcome Bay were never able to be predicted and the weather forecasters were only able to predict a sever rain event with general estimates as again the rainfall across the region varied considerably.  The forecasters have been criticized in the past for being over-zealous in their predictions of a potential disaster and for underestimating the extent of an event at the other end of the spectrum. – it is a thankless task.  It is also good to remember that our most fertile river plains are the result of numerous floods and land slips.  I am hopeful that there will be no knee-jerk reactions and that while disaster events cannot be eliminated we all try and better understand the land we live in.  And just a side note, these events have nothing to do with the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere so when you hear the TV presenters or the Labour and Greens suggesting it is because of “climate change” you will understand why the rest of the TV news has a “left-wing” bias.