Agsafe Weekly Rural Report
Finance:. NZ dollar remained steady to slightly easier over the week but the real concern is the cross rate with the Australian dollar. The Brent Crude varied across the week & is currently $102.24/barrel.
Wool: The prices in both the crossbred and finer wools are encouraging but have eased at recent sales.
Beef, Sheep & Venison schedules: The meat schedules remain steady across all categories as the spring growth kicks in. The international demand for red meat is very strong pushing the local prices higher. Schedules are expected to rise over the next month.
Dairy Prices The Pulse Auction shows some upwards movement. g/DT on 6th October should see an uplift in prices again. Tatua has paid out $13.93 with retentions of $1.51 providing a net payment of $12.42. A good result!!
The 2027/28 dairy season is now underway with mating or premating work being done. Selecting the right cows for mating is the key to a high conception rate, a submission rate means nothing if they don’t hold in calf. It is the standing cow that is ready is for mating, the riders and the mucking around cows will eventually stand and be ready!!!
Quote: “It's not the load that breaks you down, it's the way you carry it.”
Need Help. If at any time you just want to talk & need someone to talk to, just call - Male Support Services (Waikato) 0800-677-289, or Rural Support Trust 0800-787-245. Crisis TXT – HELP (4357). A shared problem can be a problem solved!!
Jims Rant,
Much of this week’s news has been around the Over-Hang Theory and tactical voting to ensure a center-right government continues to manage the New Zealand economy. National will most certainly attack the plan and to a lesser extent Labour will rally against it. It is not easy to understand the exact figures because we have no idea what the voters will actually do on polling day. But it is described as being clever, but not necessarily ethical. I think part of the ethics comes in is because some see the game as creating an unfair advantage and we then ask the question: where is the ethics in politics anyway!!!?? National doesn’t like it because it will limit their ability to bring in list MP’s thus putting Nicola Willis and Gerry Brownlee positions at risk. They are also concerned that the ACT & NZ First may wield too much power around the cabinet appointments and Act and NZ First might have enough to become their own minority government generated by the overhang voting and might have enough clout to seriously influence the make-up of the cabinet. The over-hang theory has been promoted for most of the year with no serious push other than reminding the voters that the Maori Party have used the overhang theory to increase their members in the House. So how does it work? I have struggled to find a clear definitive statement but the simple process is as follows: Vote for your local National candidate and that could see +/-40 electorate members elected which is 33% of the parliament and with the Party Vote for National at say 28% there is a 5% overhang, so National has 6 extra seats. With this hypothetical result in which the governing parties’ combined party votes would ordinarily produce 58 seats against the opposition’s 62. If transfers within the governing bloc generated a six-seat National overhang, the result could become 64 against 62. Parliament would grow to 126 MPs, with 64 needed for a majority. The coalition would have crossed that line without increasing its combined party vote. Someone has created a mathematical formula that is difficult to understand but is here for the nerds. Mathematically, if a party's constituency wins exceed its proportional allocation , the overhang is calculated as . Compensatory or "balance" seats may be added for other parties to restore proportionality, depending on the system. Overhangs have occurred in NZ when Te Pati Maori won more seats than their party vote share and Parliament went from 120 to 123 seats in 2023, so it is nothing new but can promote a backlash. The voters in NZ have never before had to consider strategic voting but the need to keep Chloe Swarbrick away from any portfolios, especially finance is important. The Treasury opened the books this week and they were better than anticipated and our country does not need to go backwards again. Nicola Willis has not been the best Minister of Finance and Chris Luxon may not be the best Prime Minister ever but look at the alternatives!! I like the idea of splitting the vote to ensure a strong center-right government with more influence from ACT and NZ First so they can push to dump the Net Zero and Paris stuff, leave the supermarkets to sort themselves out and get rid of the Waitangi Commission. It is interesting times and remember that the polling results can become an influencing factor on their own!!!