Shock poll result has major impact on Labour's chances

A shock poll showing National leading Labour by just three points has significantly boosted Labour's chances of leading the next government, according to iPredict traders.

The Morgan Poll released on Friday showed National's support at 40.5 percent with Labour on 37.5 percent. Traders on New Zealand’s online predictions market iPredict reacted instantly to news of the poll, moving Labour's likelihood of leading the next government up to 29%, with National's chances of leading falling six percentage points to 71%.

"Traders seem to be attaching significant weight to the Morgan Poll. They believe Labour is still in the race to lead in 2009. The Labour contract has been one of our most actively traded stocks, yet prices have been steady. A movement of this magnitude is unprecedented since trading began in September," said iPredict CEO Matt Burgess.

Contracts on iPredict pay $1 each if a defined event comes true. The prices that these contracts trade for on the iPredict exchange is the prediction and reflects the wisdom of crowds. Contract PM.LABOUR, which pays $1 if Labour leads the next government, is trading at $0.29, which can be interpreted as a 29% likelihood at a given time of Labour winning the election.

iPredict is owned by Victoria University and the Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation. It is authorised by the Securities Commission as a futures dealer. The primary purpose of iPredict is research and education. Anybody can browse iPredict and see the predictions for free by going to www.iPredict.co.nz. Traders must be 18 years and older to set up an account. Accounts are free to set up and people can start trading with as little as $5.