Bainimarama Unlikely To Be Ousted in 2009 - iPredict

Traders on iPredict give Commodore Frank Bainimarama only a 39% chance of being ousted as Interim Prime Minister of Fiji in 2009, despite leaders at the Pacific Islands Forum demanding elections in Fiji this year.

iPredict forecasting plummeted from 40% down to 20% earlier in the week when Commodore Bainimarama revealed long-term plans for retaining the leadership. However, yesterday's threats of sanctions against Fiji unless elections are held this year have caused traders to re-evaluate.

"iPredict is providing a real time assessment of what is happening in Fiji day-to-day. As traders absorb news coming out of Fiji, that new information is immediately reflected in the political forecasts we publish," says Matt Burgess, Chief Executive of iPredict.

"Traders are taking the Pacific Islands Forum threats seriously judging by the rapid movements in the forecast in the last 24 hours," Mr Burgess says. After peaking at 52% shortly after the New Year, Mr Bainimarama's chances of losing his job this year has decreased significantly as the Fiji leader has indicated there are no immediate plans to hold elections. "It is often surprising what does and does not move traders in these markets," he says.

iPredict is authorised by the Securities Commission as a futures dealer and is owned by Victoria University and the Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation. The primary purpose of iPredict is research and education. Anybody can browse iPredict and see the predictions for free by going to www.iPredict.co.nz. Traders must be 18 years and older to set up an account. Accounts are free to set up and people can start trading with as little as $5.