Despite an unexpected decline in employment, the Department of Labour’s Leading Indicator of Employment forecasts modest employment growth over the coming months.
The Leading Indicator of Employment is designed to give advance warning of turning points in the labour market as measured by the Household Labour Force Survey.
Acting Head of Labour Market Information Benedikte Jensen says at recovery turning points, where we are now, data tends to be volatile. “However, the indicator along with other economic data shows that the labour market continues to slowly recover.”
The indicator forecasts that employment will grow between 0.4% and 0.7% in each of the next three quarters.
This positive outlook is in line with other labour market indicators, including the Department’s Jobs Online report.
Drawing on information including the ANZ Commodity Price Index and the Stock Market Index, the Leading Indicator of Employment is issued quarterly, following the release of the Household Labour Force Survey.
For more information about the Leading Indicator of Employment go to http://dol.govt.nz/publications/lmr/lioe/