Napier City Economic Report September 2011

This report provides an analysis and assessment of the current economic situation within Napier City, trends over the past year and the economic outlook for the year ahead. The base information for the analysis is sourced from a range of economic agencies including Statistics New Zealand, the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research based in Wellington, trading bank reports and local organisations within the district. The actual monitoring period covered by analysis in the report is the year ending September quarter 2011. Appendix 1 contains economic indicator results for the City, for the last five September years.

Trend Summary

There have been a number of positive economic gains in Napier City over the past year, including:

• Further overall population gain, due to natural population increase and net internal migration gain.
• Increased consented new building activity in the hospitality, storage and industrial sectors.
• Increased housing affordability and consumer confidence.
• Significant rise in visitor arrivals and slight increase in visitor night-stays.
• Significant further annual increase in total international tonnages handled by the Port of Napier and also in terms of cruise ship visits to HB this season.
• Continued overall business optimism with respect to future business conditions over the year ahead.
• An expectation of an approximate 10% lift in local business activity levels, over the coming year.
• Significant GDP growth for the food processing, transport/ communications, commercial/ business services and public sector administration industries.
• Limited employment growth, slight fall in the rate of unemployment and significant decrease in numbers on the unemployment benefit.
• A significant number of new business developments occurring in the City.
• Overall estimated GDP growth of 1% for the year ending September 2011, with a forecast additional total GDP growth of approximately 1% for the City, for the next 3 years.

 

Downside changes include:

• Continued significant external population out-migration.
• Falls in new residential and overall commercial/ industrial buildings consented.
• Fall in non-food processing/ manufacturing, construction and tourism/hospitality services, and health/ education/ community services GDP growth.

 

The City will be eagerly awaiting the onset of the traditional summer season lift in economic activity via Christmas spending, the visitor industry, events activity and the flow-on impacts of the broad horticultural harvesting sector in the region.