Agsafe Weekly Rural Report

Finance:.   NZ dollar was steady to slightly firmer over the week following the lift in the OCR last week, but remains a very weak currency. The Brent Crude jumped to $87.74/barrel as the Gulf War ramps up again.

Wool:  The crossbred wool prices eased at this week’s auction but there is still growing optimism in the coarse wool markets.

Beef, Sheep & Venison schedules: The meat schedules remain steady across all categories.  All meat schedules remain firm as demand continues to grow for red meats internationally.

Dairy Prices.  Following last weeks drop in the g/DT Fonterra lowered its forecast payout by $0.50/kg ms.  The range is now $8.00 to $10.50 with a midpoint of $9.25.  The opening payout is now $6.95 through to September payment.

The Dairy Goat Coop seems to have turned the corner and there is renewed call for production.  Farmers are being encouraged to bring their production up to the full shared-up quota for the 2027/28 season with guaranteed payment which is just over break-even.  It bhas been a very tough few years with massive losses incurred by the suppliers.

Quote:    “Never let your sense of morals prevent you from doing what is right.”       

Need Help. If at any time you just want to talk & need someone to talk to, just call - Male Support Services (Waikato) 0800-677-289,  or Rural Support Trust 0800-787-245.  Crisis TXT – HELP (4357).  A shared problem can be a problem solved!!

Jims Rant

I have been trying to understand the decision of the Court regarding Plan Change 1 (PC1).  Environment Waikato issued PC1 in 2016 to the public for consultation and final determination before cementing it in the rules.  Many of the Regional Councils were watching with the view of copying the PC1 into other regions.  There were many objections and proposed changes, and after considerable consultation, the Plan was challenged in the Court by Federated Farmers and Beef & Lamb NZ with the final determination being released on 8th June 2026, but still open to appeal!!  The plan development process started in 2012 with the public notification being in 2016.  PC1 was challenged and there was interim decision received in May 2025.  The costs have been massive and the Plan is still not implemented.  While the Court process was underway the Government changed with a promise to completely overhaul the Resource Management Act (RMA).  The overhaul has not yet happened and the Court has been allowed to continue along the path prescribed in the old RMA.  Shane Jones and other MP’s have stated that the Court decision “will” be overturned by government legislation so perhaps it will all be just a waste of time and money and 10-years of public involvement!!.  On the other side the Regional Councils are all being abolished.  My simple interpretation is that it is a mess and the government needs to act fast and put some definitive statements and legislation around their rhetoric. So, what has the Court determined in its final decision?

PC1 sets new freshwater rules for farming in the Waikato and Waipa catchments as part of an 80-year plan to improve river health and this will mean that most farmers will be required to have:

1.    A Farm Environmental Plan which we have estimated will cost in excess of $5,000 on most farms.

2.    Proof they are implementing good farm practices, whatever that means!!

3.    Documentation demonstrating contaminant loss risk from their farms that are as low as practicable or moving lower.

4.    Resource Consents if they are deemed to be not low risk.  The high risk farms will require the farm plan to include an Overseer file.  Remember that Overseer is a fictious model based on assumptions that assume assumptions.

Horticultural farmers will be required to have Farm Plans, but in this case the Court has determined that Overseer is an inappropriate tool but requires a Nitrogen Risk Scorecard to be used to monitor the nitrogen losses through the soil.  The commercial vegetable production is limited by the baseline years of 2006 to 2016 and any increased areas will need resource consents. I think the demand for vegetable production would have increased over the last 10-years or so and will continue to increase for years to come – the baseline years now long gone!!  There are slope limitations for grazing and cultivation, there are set-back areas from streams and waterways, there are timeframes around implantation and the need for future consents and all this is happening while the government is too slow to implement its stated policies.  If Shane Jones is right with his statements that PC1 will be voided under the proposed legislation then the WRC, Federated farmers, Dairy NZ & Beef & Lamb NZ and the public have just wasted millions of dollars fighting a flawed document through the Court system.  Come on you MP’s and sort it out NOW, farming needs certainty and not flip-flop legislation and promises of something that might happen.