Pandemic Influenza (H1N1) 09 Swine Flu - Update 124

The number of GP consultations for influenza-like illnesses appears to have decreased slightly but it is too soon to determine whether this is a temporary dip or the start of an ongoing fall in swine flu cases.

Health Minister Tony Ryall says it is common for influenza numbers to rise and fall over several months and this pandemic may follow a similar pattern.

The next few weeks will be critical in better understanding the future path of the pandemic.

The general practice sentinel surveillance system shows a general drop in consultation rates in the week to 26 July, however a number of District Health Boards have not followed this trend. In the same calendar week ILI consultations increased in Taranaki, MidCentral, Wairarapa, South Canterbury, Canterbury, Otago and Southland. GP consultation rates for school age children with flu symptoms declined during the July school holidays and have since increased slightly in line with previous years.

Mr Ryall says the pandemic influenza had an early and rapid impact on Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch, before spreading to neighbouring regions including South Canterbury, Hawkes Bay, Northland and Waikato.

Figures suggest that in Auckland and Wellington, pandemic influenza may be slowly declining, but this could simply be part of the normal fluctuation you would expect, particularly with a new virus.

Mr Ryall says "We are seeing different pictures of swine flu activity across different regions. For instance, the numbers of confirmed H1N1 hospitalisations in Lakes, MidCentral, Nelson Marlborough, Otago, South Canterbury, Southland, Tairawhiti, Taranaki, Wairarapa, West Coast, and Whanganui DHBs are still low but it may be the virus has not reached its peak in these regions."

Latest Numbers

Numbers of people in hospitals with the Pandemic Influenza (H1N1) 09

As at midday today, a total of 52 people are reported to be in hospital with Pandemic Influenza (H1N1) 09 or its complications, including 20 in intensive care.

The number of patients currently in intensive care with confirmed Pandemic Influenza (H1N1) 09 broken down by region is as follows:
Northland (3) Auckland (8), Counties Manukau (4), Lakes (1), Nelson Marlborough (1) Canterbury (1), Otago (1), Southland (1)

There are a total of 2872 confirmed cases of Pandemic Influenza (H1N1) 09 swine flu, up from 2855 yesterday.

The actual number of cases of Pandemic Influenza (H1N1) 09 will be significantly higher, as only a small proportion of people with symptoms are being tested.

This is because for most people, it's a mild illness and they will recover readily at home without needing medical treatment.

The number of deaths from Pandemic Influenza (H1N1) 09 swine flu is 14.

Please note these 14 deaths reported by the Ministry are deaths from swine flu, where swine flu was a primary cause of death.

School absences

Early responses to a Ministry of Education "snapshot" survey of all schools on Friday 31 July show that in general schools are reporting usual levels of absence for this time of year, while only a minority of the of schools report either lower or higher levels.

Deputy Director of Public Health Dr Fran McGrath says this may be because people have been taking note of the message to stay home if they are sick, to help slow the spread of influenza.

Healthline Calls

The high number of influenza-related calls to Healthline has continued over the past week, although numbers have decreased since peaks in mid-June and early July, when calls to the Healthline 0800 number exceeded 6000 a day. The number of calls answered by Healthline nurses continues to be at least 20 percent above normal levels.

ENDS

For health information and advice, the public should call Healthline 0800 611 116

For latest updates on Influenza A (H1N1) Swine Flu, visit http://www.moh.govt.nz