New Zealand snow areas confident they will adapt to any risks from climate change

New climate modelling shows seasonal snow levels at New Zealand ski areas will be reduced by the effects of climate change in the coming years, but the good news is the loss may actually be less than originally anticipated and we should be able to continue to make snow, even under a more extreme climate scenario.

This is the first time a quantitative assessment of the potential impact of climate change on snow levels has been done in New Zealand.

Using global climate trend data, taken from the climate models used for the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report, NIWA scientists created three different emissions scenarios. These were then fed into a model specifically designed for New Zealand conditions, to show how the different scenarios could impact on snow levels for the 2040s (2030-2049) and the 2090s (2080-2099). Results were provided both for New Zealand as a whole and for individual ski areas.

The results show:
Nationally:
       On average, at nearly all elevation levels, there will be a gradual decrease in snow (including duration, and mean maximum snow accumulation) as the century progresses.
       The decrease in snow is more marked at elevations below 1000 metres but is evident at all but the highest elevations.
For individual ski areas (depending on their location and elevation):
       Under a mid-range climate change scenario, by 2040 there will be on average between 93% and 79% of the current maximum snow depths at the upper elevation sites, and by 2090 this, on average, will be further reduced, to approximately 80% to 54% of the current maximum snow depths.
       Under a warmer climate change scenario, by 2040 there will be on average between 92% and 72% of the current maximum snow depths at the upper elevation sites, and by 2090 this, on average, will be further reduced, to approximately 79% to 35% of the current maximum snow depths
       At lower elevations the decreases are even more pronounced.
       Under a mid-range climate change scenario, by 2040 there will be on average between 91% and 65% of the current maximum snow depths at the lower elevation sites, and by 2090 this, on average, will be further reduced, to approximately 68% to 20% of the current maximum snow depths.
       Under a warmer climate change scenario, by 2040 there will be on average between 83% and 45% of the current maximum snow depths at the lower elevation sites, and by 2090 this, on average, will be further reduced, to approximately 48% to 9% of the current maximum snow depths.