Tax on petrol is one of the ways of forcing you out of your car

Tax on petrol is one of the ways of forcing you out of your car

For most of us our awareness of oil begins and ends at the petrol pump. We have lived with a cheap supply of petrol for so long that today we seem to see it as a basic human right and we don’t like it when it rises in price.

Politicians as recent as 2005 were spinning price spikes as something that will soon ‘settle down’ while government was forecasting its budget based on oil at $30 a barrel. Today oil has hit $103 dollars a barrel with NO signs of receding.

In 2005 the NZ economy used about 160,000 barrels of oil a day - an annual increase of 20% which cost us around $500 million p.a. that figure has surly to risen by 2008 as consumption continues to rise

We are a world addicted to oil – a world that has NO real plan B – a world in denial now furiously running round trying to find substitutes to keep everything from collapsing with very little understanding of the bigger picture emerging.

The truth about oil is that it is a finite substance that has been expected to fuel our unsustainable economies forever. The illegal invasions in the Middle East have now claimed 4.8 million (1) lives in order for the US to control the last remaining dribbles and the worlds governments have been silent over this holocaust because it serves their interests in sustaining their oil addictions. Meanwhile most remain indifferent and continue to drive despite escalating prices which are now predicted to hit $2 in a few weeks/months. (1) this figure is never quoted in Mainstream news despite its accuracy

Michael Klare, professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College and author of "Blood and Oil: The dangers and consequences of American’s growing Petroleum Dependency" writes in Salon

“Three factors, in particular, are responsible for the current surge: intensifying competition for oil between the older industrial powers and rising economic dynamos like China and India; the inability of the global energy industry to expand supplies to keep pace with growing demand; and intensifying instability in the major oil-producing areas.”

What he means by this is that the world is facing peak oil which is the inability of the market to supply given the rise in demand - especially those of developing countries. However before anyone runs off and blames china and India lets take a look at the rise and rise of huge American style SUV vehicles that everyone seems to want to buy.

In Auckland for instance in 1998 there were only 5,701 of these vehicles however by 2004 they had grown to 14,345 no doubt that figure has doubled by now. Not to be outdone Wellington had 1,200 in 1998 which grew to 29,651 in 2004 even tiny Nelson saw a huge increase from a mere 457 to 1,060 in 2004 and judging by all the ‘new’ car yards it would be safe to say that that figure has tripled in 2008. These cars have huge petrol tanks which also contribute to the increasing demand of fuel not to mention global warming. Soon however they will become huge white elephants as the price of petrol continue to rise.

In 2005 I complied and produced a magazine called “ The Truth About Oil – An introduction to Peak Oil and it gave a rounded view of what was happening on the world stage as well as how all of it would affect New Zealand and what we could do about it. It included outcomes from a 'leaked' 2005 conference held by the IEA the International Energy Agency of which NZ is a member.

Here are some of the things member governments could do in what they termed ‘emergency’ measures. However keep in mind that at this time this agency did not believe in peak oil and was advising member nations such as New Zealand that if peak oil were to occur it would not be until somewhere around 2030 or 2037 – so far into the future that there was never a sense of urgency or a real need for contingency plans to be implemented.

• Higher petrol tax – Enforced conservation - lowering fuel taxes undermines the market -

• Careless days – driving ban – odd/even licence plate scheme – similar to 1970’s

• Free Public transport – set fares to zero or 50% fare reduction and increase weekend and off-peak transit services and peak services frequency by 10% - as well as bus priority: convert all existing carpool and bus lanes to 24 hour bus priority usage and convert other lanes to bus only lanes

• Compressed working week – with employer participation and public information campaign

• Telecommuting – Large program including active participation of business, public information on benefits of telecommuting, minor investments in needed infrastructure to facilitate – large program with purchase of computers for 50% of participants

• Carpooling – large program to designate emergency carpool lanes along all motorways, designate park and ride lots, inform public and match riders.

In its conclusions the report stated

“those policies that restrict driving are most effective but more restrictive policies are politically unpopular”

However the IEA tacitly admits that this unpopularity would need extra policing in these circumstances to stop citizens breaking the bans, in fact the cost of those extra patrols were part of the IEA’s study. The IEA also notes

“ Restrictive policies such as enforced conservation and higher petrol taxes, car less days etc can be relatively difficult to implement and thus may come at high political costs.”

Peak oil is a reality. It is NOT a conspiracy by the elites, although price gouging might be. Technology won’t save us and neither will water cars or cars fuelled by corn or any other substance that competes with humanity for food.  Even bio mass cannot help

On the 7th of March this year Goldman Sachs had this to say

“With $100-a-barrel here for now, Goldman Sachs says $200 a barrel could be a reality in the not-too-distant future in the case of a "major disruption........ Goldman analysts Arjun Murti, Kevin Koh and Michele della Vigna said prices have advanced more quickly than Goldman had forecast back in 2005, when it predicted a range of $50 to $105 a barrel as part of its "super-spike" oil theory...."We characterized the upper end of the band as more likely to be driven by geopolitical turmoil and that recession was a key risk to our view," the analysts said. "In fact, oil prices have reached $100 a barrel without extraordinary turmoil, and the U.S. currently appears to be in recession."

Oxford trained geologist Jeremy Leggett's analysis of the consequences of Peak Oil sums it all up – and although given in 2005, now seems rather prophetic

"when the truth can no longer be obscured, the price will spike, the economy nosedive, and the underpinnings of our civilization will start tumbling like dominos. "The price of house will collapse. Stock markets will crash. Within a short period, human wealth -- little more than a pile of paper at the best of times, even with the confidence about the future high among traders -- will shrivel.

There will be emergency summits, diplomatic initiatives, urgent exploration efforts, but the turmoil will not subside. Thousands of companies will go bankrupt, and millions will be unemployed. "Once affluent cities with street cafés will have queues at soup kitchens and armies of beggars. The crime rate will soar. The earth has always been a dangerous place, but now it will become a tinderbox

Under these sort of conditions, financing a large scale switchover to alternative energies will be, for all intents and purposes, impossible. "

 another Journalists, Paula Hay had this to say about the lack of public awarness on the topic

"If millions of people got the picture that Peak Oil is imminent, they would surely begin to take steps to protect themselves and their families—to powerdown—and decline would be slowed as a result of all those peoples’ aggregate actions. It would be a classic market response to new information.......Big Oil cannot allow this to happen if it intends to keep its profits sky-high. If people believe that oil is abundant forever; that they are being screwed by Big Oil; and that the government will step in any moment to save them, they have no incentive to powerdown. ....Abiotic oil propaganda, coupled with finger-pointing at the oil industry, is a perfect ruse to ensure people don’t start powering down. Peak Oil is not the oil industry’s propaganda. Abiotic oil is the oil industry’s propaganda."

We are NOT being told the truth by government and as such we are behind the 8 ball in terms of what is really going on so that as prices continue to rise and government or council slaps more tax on petrol to pay for yet more roading all we are left with is reactionary behaviour.

The key here is to educate yourself and make necessary changes in your own lives before you have to be forced to do so by a government who will not tell you the truth until its to late to do anything about it. We are not collectively just facing the end of the age of oil but also radical shifts in climate due in part to the burning of fossil fuels which are a dirty and toxic fuel. So in essence we are all being challenged to look at the way we live in our lives, and NOT find substitutes to keep everything going in the same old same old but to collectively rise to the challenge and the responsibilities inherent within them to find real and lasting alternatives that are green, environmentally friendly and sustainable.